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No changes at the top, but some in the middle as the CPD regular season ended Saturday. This past weekend was in fact our worst of the season in terms of predicting winners. We were right on only 8 out of 13. This was in part due to elevating a couple of teams based on one-off victories, when they probably shouldn’t have been that high.

Now, however, that every team in a conference has played every other, we can compare everyone directly. The two areas of confusion for us are the middle teams in Rugby East, and the middle teams in the Mid-South. The Rugby East teams end up getting separated by record. While Delaware lost a very close one to Penn State, they also lost to Dartmouth and Kutztown, and therefore have to be below those two. Kutztown defeated Dartmouth, so in the end it all works out.

In the Mid-South, we mapped out the scores among Notre Dame, Tennessee, LSU and Texas A&M. Those six results opened our eyes nicely. Notre Dame and LSU were 2-1 in those games. So they go to the top of the class, and then Notre Dame is ranked ahead by virtue of their win over LSU in Baton Rouge. Tennessee and A&M were 1-2, and while Tennessee beat A&M, we couldn’t get by Tennessee’s points against numbers – they gave up 100 points in their three games against ND, LSU and A&M, far more than anyone else gave up. So A&M nudges ahead of Tennessee.

Can anyone move up even if they don’t play? Certainly. If one conference dominates in the playoffs, look for that conference to have coattails.

May 1, 2011 RUGBYMag.com College Premier Rankings
1 (1) BYU 12-0 Defeated Arizona State (10) 80-0
2 (2) Cal 17-0 (24-0) Idle
3 (3) Arkansas State 8-0 (10-0) Idle
4 (4) Army 7-0 Defeated Navy (6) 34-27
5 (5) Life University 10-1 Defeated Oklahoma (28)
6 (6) Navy 5-2 Lost 34-27 to Army (4)
7 (7) St. Mary's 12-2 (16-3) 43-22 over UCLA (24)
8 (8) Utah 9-1 (12-3) Idle
9 (9) Central Washington 7-3 Defeated San Diego State (17) 36-27
10 (10) Arizona State 6-3 Lost 80-0 to BYU (1)
11 (11) Penn State 7-4 (8-5) 42-41 over Delaware (16)
12 (14) Arizona 10-4 Defeated Air Force (12) 34-29
13 (12) Air Force 3-7 Lost 35-29 to Arizona (14)
14 (15) Kutztown 4-4 Defeated Dartmouth (13) 31-15
15 (17) San Diego State 5-5 Lost 36-27 to Central Washington (9)
16 (13) Dartmouth 10-4 Lost 31-15 to Kutztown (15)
17 (16) Delaware 10-8 Lost 42-41 to Penn State (11)
18 (18) Cal Poly 6-5 Defeated Claremont Colleges (29) 51-31
19 (22) Notre Dame 7-5 (9-5) Defeated Tennessee (19) 34-5
20 (23) LSU 5-3 (6-3) Defeated Texas A&M (21) 16-10
21 (21) Texas A&M 2-4 (3-5) Lost 16-10 to LSU (23)
22 (19) Tennessee 8-5 (8-6)Lost 34-5 to Notre Dame (22)
23 (26) Ohio State 2-7 (2-8) 45-22 over Rutgers (20)
24 (20) Rutgers 1-6 Lost 45-22 to Ohio State (26)
25 (24) UCLA 6-6 Lost 55-29 to Central Washington (9)
26 (25) Colorado 3-5 (3-7) Idle
27 (27) UC Davis 4-10 Idle
28 (30) Colorado State 1-9 Defeated Wyoming 30-12 (31)
29 (29) Claremont Colleges 0-12 Lost 51-31 to Cal Poly (18)
30 (28) Oklahoma 1-6 (1-7) Lost 90-10 to Life (5)
31 (31) Wyoming 2-9 Lost 30-12 to Colorado State (30)